An Insight into SSC CGLE 2013
Posted:- 02nd October, 2013
The strength of SSC's 2013 recruitment strategy has been put into under a serious test right from the beginning of this year. But as usual the commission has been so far successful in its job. Although the shock of leaks & various hurdles from court hearing to busting the cheating racket recently has really added to its troubles. With already the CGL 2013 CAT hearing on its way, the fate of this most charming & sought out competitive exam after UPSC is still vague.
However, the candidates must not lose their patience and do what they can do the best, perform.
Let's not dwell further into controversies and anlalyze the recently concluded SSC CGL MAINS exam held all over India on 28th & 29th September, 2013.
As, we have done our best in past to give the most precise figure every time to our followers, this time again our task force has put good focus in the stats and emerged out with very pleasing and credible data.
With around 32,000 UR candidates available after tier1 for CGLE Mains exam, contending for almost the same number of vacant seats that were last year under Interview Posts, that is, 2500, we did some approximate calculations considering two facts:-
1. The easiness of Paper 1 & 2 this year in comparison to 2012.
2. The high scores attained already in Pre by many candidates in CGL 2013.
Cutoff for Pre(UR) 2012:- 82
Paper level (Mains):- Moderate
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Cutoff for Interview 2012(UR) :- 349
therefore, Gap:- 349-82= 267, So, this was the figure in 2012 One had to score in Tier-II after Pre(tier-I) to fetch an Interview Call.
Cutoff for Pre(UR):- 96
Paper level (Mains):- Easy
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Number of vacancies being same, the only factor remains easiness of paper this time, so we can scale the Gap factor from 267 to 300 easily.
Gap:- 300
Cutoff for Interview 2012(UR) :- Pre Cutoff + Gap= 96 + 300 ~ 400 approx or an unreserved category candidate.
Our calculation assumes a linear effect of easiness of mains papers on Interview Cutoff.
Thus, at 400 (Tier I + Tier II) one is safe to get an Interview Call this time.
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Similary, considering the same earlier average performance of the successful candidates in Interview last year, we applied the approximation to reach to a possible Cutoff Score for different Interview Posts.
Like for example take, Asst in CSS, last year 375 vacancies were there for gen category, and in the end after Interview the cutoff was 382.25 which was 33 marks more than Interview Cutoff, So we will apply this 33 marks gap to our predicted cutoff of Mains this time.
Please Understand the fact, we are considering the same number of vacancies in all posts, and presenting the data by mapping last year trend to this year's adjusted figure only and not pretending anything.
POST VACANCY & Cutoff Last Year(2012 UR) Estimated Cutoff in 2013(Tier I +II + Interview- UR)
Asst in CSS 375 /382.50 433
Intelligence 23/453 504
Bureau
Ministery of 21/447.25 498
Railway
Ministery of Ext 18/457.25 508
Affairs
MEA(Cyphers) 24/444 495
Asst in Min of Defence 53/429.75 480
and Asst in AFHQ
Income Tax Insp(ITI) * 550/456-478 507-528
Preventive Officer 204/418.5 469
Examiner 17/475.25 526
* ITI seats are presented only for in demand states like Delhi & UT, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Pun & Har, Gujrat, West bengal, Bihar, Karnatka, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh.
Posted:- 02nd October,2013
From the editors,SIEF Team.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sscexamforum/
twitter.com/santiw25
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An analysis and an appeal : CGL 2012
July,2012.India.
Hello CGL Aspirants!
No doubt this year’s pattern has almost turned the examination into an epic world war kind of situation, and no doubt our candidates are going to conquer this third war of the world.
But, let’s not dwell into what has happened but dive into what could happen!
Friends, pals and brothers, this is not some publicity stunt to gain popularity and neither a plot to divert you, but it’s more of an appeal to stay cool and calm,
remember no tensed and nervous fighter ends as a Hero.
So just read this article, and I promise you would emerge enlightened with hope and faith over yourself. While reading your heartbeat might go through ups and downs,so have a glass of Cold water and then go through the article.
Hawk’s Eye Insight of CGL:
Many of you might be aware,that there is no fixed rule to calculate the cutoff in such an exam where the participation is huge, and this year some 15 lacs candidates have registered for the Common Graduate Level Examination.
[source: ssc chief’s tweet on -twitter.com/sscchief...]
They just select that much of candidates from the top slot whom filtering might end up near to the number of vacancies.
Like last year, 9,32,358 candidates registered for CGL’11 and 6,09,572 appeared in the preliminary actually. [source: SSC notice released with CGL’11 pre results in 2011]
Now, the SSC after the pre exam sorted around 80 thousand students for the Mains paper ahead. Similarly,we expect around 12lacs candidates might have appeared in all the shifts conducted on 1st & 8th of July this month.
12 lacs is not only a huge number but the fact that it is actually double to the count of previous year.
Please mind, the total vacancies last year were 14,000 and this year its near around 12,700 for all 24 posts[source: ssc chief’s tweet].
Now we would come to the actual exam pattern this year, which ultimately ended up as a controversial issue of the month. Reportedly after changes in examination syllabus, the paper was launched into 16sets which were diverse in nature of toughness and similarity. In many states and centers, candidates were unhappy and aggressive to see the imbalance in different sets of papers. But what actually pinched, is the level of difficulty in maths section, data from different students supported the fact that majority of questions were lengthy, time taking and based on Geometry and Trigonometry which used to be in lesser proportions in any ssc preliminary exam till now and was more of a topic of Mains exams.
So, overall the paper was found to be tougher than what its actually was in 2011, out survey among hundreds of students showed that last year’s score of 120 and 100 are equivalent to 100 and 80 of this year paper.
Based on above facts we are going to estimate this year’s cutoff of 2012 CGL pre.
We are taking into account two parameters, one the total applicants or the candidates appeared, and other being toughness of this year’s paper.
The number of candidates has actually a linear effect on top slot marks scored and thus affects the Cut-off in same way, while the level of difficulty or easiness has an exponential impact on the Cut-off, what we actually mean in a nutshell that it’s the toughness that is a major player.
If we chose some base points, and relate the two parameters in the years 2011 and 2012 we may reach to some conclusion with some complicated and approx calculations.
The ratio of candidates appeared in both years 2011 and 2012 is near around 3:5, and the toughness proportion is 4:5 respectively.
Thus the cutoff stands in the ratio (3)raised to 1/4 & (4)raised to 1/5.
Now what’s left is simple mathematics, relating the ratio to cutoff of last year for UR category which was 86.75,
(3)raised to 1/4 : (5)raised to 1/5 = 86.75: cutoff’2012(UR)
So, it comes as ~ 90.69.
90.69 is what the simple mathematics Says!
The Actual Scene: The Fact of the facts
90.69 is a number big enough to raise the heartbeats of several students and put them into depression, and that’s the reason several coaching institutes, authors and big guns are claiming the cutoff to stay around 90 this year.
But,how foolish of them to ignore the facts which we’re going to serve hot before you.
This year, SSC has comeup with a decision that made the fresh graduates waiting for their results as eligible for CGL preliminary, and astonishingly, some 40-60% of the crowd was filled with them only. Please mind, majority of them were taking it as an experience and not a serious attempt for success, which somehow raised the pressure of 12 lacs participation this year from the Cutoff.
Another fact, is the change of syllabus, geometry, height & distance, trigonometry, mensuration were used to topic of mains examination but this time surprisingly SSC has flooded the tier-1 paper of maths with questions from such topics.
Its not the toughness that affected the candidates but the amount of time such questions demands has put the candidates into a miserable situation.
Still, if the 16sets were balanced we would have closed our eyes and accepted the Cut-off achieved by simple calculations,but the severe imbalance and disproportion of level in those 16sets have imposed a noticeable decrement on the cutoff overall.
So,considering these three above major and prominent facts, we would plot out the range of marks that could be achieved under such situations and then decide what could be the cutoff.
After studying, 16sets of papers held on 1st & 8th july, we observed such estimated pattern (purely assumed and derived from SSC CGL’11,SSC FCI’12 and other results available rank wise).
120+ 5,000
105+ 15,000
100+ 25,000
90+ 50,000
85+ 70,000
Since,SSC needs around 70-75 thousand students for mains, our marks upto that slot might remain at 82-85 for unreserved category.
That’s our estimate, 82(UR) could be the final Cutoff for CGL pre(tier1) 2012.
Our Advice For 70-90 slot guys:
Don’t lose your hopes, this article is in no way written to prove our calculations and estimations, but it actually holds and appeal specially to under performers, to remain motivated, still you guys are very much in the fight.
See, everytime in the history like IIT,AIEEE,IBPS has comeup with drastic changes, the results were unexpected and beyond one’s imagination, so our sincere advice is to stop asking to people about your chances and stop worrying for selection, it’s high time, you indulge yourself into preparations for mains, you are already lagging behind,isn’t it? Why take chances then?
Lets gear up, and do what wise men can do the best, Fight!
Believe that you’re wounded horses and you need to run at a blazing speed now, Goodluck!
Posted:- July,2012
From the editors,SIEF Team.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sscexamforum/